We monitor cell phone communications coming from certain parts of the world with the hope of detecting terrorist plans or intentions. They learn of this so they switch to other forms of communications. The question this raises is an old one.
How does or can the act of observing affect the behavior of the things being observed?
This question can be re-framed with regard to decision support system or decision analysis in which case the question becomes, in a much more indirect sense, how are the predictions inherent in generating data presented to users to aid in decision support affected by the ultimate decisions that are made based on them as those same predictions and decisions are made repeatedly over time?
In simpler terms, when does, if it does, the tail begin to wag the dog?
If it does, then how can such decision support systems compensate or dynamically adapt such that predictions remain valid and in fact become more accurate over time?
